Production is dirty, boring and outdated. This is a slow industry stuck in the past, and its development calls into question new technologies from Silicon Valley. And stereotypes are ridiculous and ... wrong. Let's not forget that it was production, industry that brought us into the modern era. While many dream of science fiction robots, manufacturers make them and use them for useful things. While 3D printers flash in the headers, manufacturers have prototyped for decades. And although information technology is the source of the latest revolutions, production is the source of this source. There will be no chip makers - there will be no chips.
Production can be high-tech and low-tech. Dirty solutions in some places are spotlessly clean in others. Assembly lines become obsolete, but robotic manipulators also become obsolete. What will happen next? Production is changing, but when was this news?
What matters is the pace of change.
You can use artificial intelligence like Google, Facebook and Amazon
Evgenia Zavalishina, CEO of Yandex Data Factory, says that the biggest misconception about AI is that this is a futuristic thing. Not really. And it's not just technical giants. The same machine learning software that helps you find, watch, and buy everything you want online can be placed in other contexts, for example, to analyze raw factory data to save money.
Zavalishina said that machine learning software like this is quite affordable, and sometimes even free.
“These systems have long been working in favor. But in 2017, these technologies became so accessible that even superqualified people are not needed to use them, ”says Neil Jacobstein, a student at the faculty of artificial intelligence and robotics at Singularity University. "These technologies can be applied to a wide range of problems in the industry, from design to quality control, from production to customer service ... Now there are really good results."
The robots are smart enough not to kill you
Robots have long been in production, but they always needed tightly controlled environments for work and candidates of science for programming. The legend of robotics Rodney Brooks showed Sawyer robot from Rethink Robotics, showing that anyone can program it.
And thanks to cheap 3D modeling equipment and constantly improving software, robots also become smart, light and knowledgeable enough to work alongside people without harming them. The next step is not the end for human workers, this is cooperation between the best robots and the best people.
3D printing is ready for mass production
Anyone who knows about 3D printing once dreamed of printing anything, anywhere, anytime. But cost, quality, speed were always problems. With the advent of solutions from Carbon and others, 3D printing finally goes into mass production. In areas where final 3D printing becomes possible, the assembly lines will simply disappear. That is, we will immediately move from the design stage to the product receiving stage, without rebuilding the infrastructure and tools for each new product.
“A 3D printer is a programmable factory,” says futurologist, hacker and inventor Pablos Holman. “He doesn't care what to do. He doesn't care if he does one thing twice. And this is his strength. Just turn on the imagination. ”
Augmented reality will allow us to design and build
Many people have heard of virtual reality or even tried to be friends with it. There are commercial devices for VR games on the market, as well as a lot of talk about when it will be available in large quantities.
Immediately after virtual reality comes augmented reality. And if the first plunges completely, augmented reality imposes the digital world right on top of the real world. This is a more difficult problem technically, but it has more applications. In the world of advanced augmented reality, we will use a small wearable device to interact with computers, like Tony Stark from Iron Man.
In production, this means that developers will be able to attract two-dimensional modeling programs in order to work more quickly and intuitively with three-dimensional objects on the table. Workers in factories will receive more real-time data about machines and processes, or directly instructions for repair and production.
“The whole world will become our display, we will be in augmented reality all the time,” says Ray Kurzweil. “I think this is the future of technology interactions. They will become an inconspicuous part of our world. ”
We reprogram biology for industrial production.
Very soon bio-production will become the talk of the town, says Raymond McCauley, head of the department of digital biology at Singularity University.
We are learning to reprogram simple organisms into sensors and miniature factories for the production of wires, fuel and food, he says. “Not only metal will pass through the changes. Most of the materials and the principles of their production will have to be revised due to breakthroughs in the field of bioengineering. ”
And there is progress. Modified gene algae produce biofuel, and modified bacteria spin a spiderweb. But as tools for bioproduction become cheaper and more powerful every year, scaling remains a problem.
How to keep the rhythm? Need more innovation
Technology is developing rapidly. How to stay aboard this fast-moving ship of our time? Some time ago, the old companies in the list of the top 500 most famous ones had a 50-60-year term of "life." Nowadays, this number is closer to 20. Small software development startups can break the life of a giant. Innovation is becoming a crucial tool for survival.
Jeff Taff, the head of digital transformation at Monitor Deloitte and his team, presented the “golden ratio for innovation” five years ago. They advised to spend 70% of innovation resources on the core, 20% on areas adjacent to the core and 10% on the transformational space. This should not be the rule, carved in stone, but rather the reason for starting a dialogue: where and how much should we promote innovation? Today, the short answer is: the more and the farther from the comfort zone, the better.
Taff believes that his ratio has long been outdated.
"70-20-10 can no longer be applied, and I have no idea what the current numbers will be," he says. "I think close to 50-30-20 or even 50-25-25."
The speed is growing. Is it possible to keep up?
The speed at which technology creates and destroys jobs cannot but surprise. Advanced AI and robots promise increased automation. Automation has historically been cutting off simple and rough work in favor of a more complex and demanding qualification.
“People say: well, what will the new jobs be? I say: I don’t know, we haven’t invented them yet, ”says Kurzweil. “There is no single political answer to this question.”
The transition from one skill to another will not be easy and will pass by so many. Previously, such transitions were very difficult. Peter Diamandis is experiencing that people do not have enough time to adapt and keep pace with the changes. They will come too fast.
“In 1810, 84% of farmers were in the USA. Today, only 2%. Giant change in the labor market. But it went through a long period of time, ”says Diamandis. What if we lose the giant branches of labor in just 20 years? We will see social and political unrest on a large scale.
Diamandis notes that a universal basic income could ease this transition. And although we cannot shy away from the upcoming problems, we cannot allow them to blind us with the positive and beneficial changes that will take place in parallel with them.
“A son or daughter of a billionaire in New York or a son or daughter of the poorest farm in Kenya will have access to one education that the AI will provide them, to one level of health care that the AI will provide, or to robots. We demonetize everything that is today considered necessary for life, ”he says.
The article is based on materials .
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